Rent or buy — when does each one win?

01Buy side
$
% · $80,000
%
yr
%/yr
02Rent side
$/mo
%/yr
$/mo
yr
03 · The resultSee analysis ↓
RENTING COSTS LESS
Break-even year
14.4 yrs
With these values, renting is the more economical path long-term.
With a 7-yr horizon, total rent costs are lower.
NowBreak-even yr 14.4Plan: 7yr
✗ Renting costs less within your time horizon
Monthly all-in
$2.9k
Monthly rent yr 7
$2.4k
Equity yr 7
$219.6k
Total difference
+ $24.2k
What tips it
Renting costs $24.2k less than buying over 7 yrs.
02 · The crossover

Total cumulative cost: buy vs rent (17 years)

Cumulative net cost
Buy
Rent
BREAK-EVEN · YR 15PLAN: 7YR$217.0k$233.2k$0k$61k$122k$184k$245ktodayyr 4yr 9yr 13yr 17
* The buy line is net: each year it subtracts the equity you'd recover by selling (minus 7% selling costs).
Advantage at yr 7
-$24.2k
By year 7, renting will have cost $24.2k less than buying.
Two key drivers
Rent escalation3% / yr
Home appreciation3.5% / yr
Investment alt7% / yr
When appreciation + rent escalation > investment return, buying ends up costing less over time.
Cumulative cost · year by year
first crossover
YearBuy cumulativeRent cumulativeGapAdvice
Yr 1$63,854$35,621+$28,233
rent ahead
Yr 2$80,706$52,711+$27,995
rent ahead
Yr 3$96,798$69,304+$27,493
rent ahead
Yr 4$112,093$85,389+$26,704
rent ahead
Yr 5$126,555$100,952+$25,603
rent ahead
Yr 6$140,144$115,981+$24,163
rent ahead
Yr 7$152,820$130,464+$22,356
rent ahead
Yr 8$164,539$144,387+$20,151
rent ahead
Yr 9$175,255$157,738+$17,517
rent ahead
Yr 10$184,921$170,504+$14,417
rent ahead
Yr 11$193,486$182,670+$10,816
rent ahead
Yr 12$200,897$194,225+$6,673
rent ahead
Yr 13$207,080$205,136+$1,945
rent ahead
Yr 14$211,919$215,332$3,413
buy ahead
Yr 15$215,266$224,717$9,450
buy ahead
Yr 16$216,967$233,186$16,219
buy ahead
03 · Sensitivity

How does the break-even year shift?

ScenarioNew break-evenDifferenceNoteAdvice
Rent escalates 5% (not 3%)~8.4 yrs−5.9 yrsRent climbs faster
RENT
Home appreciates 2% (not 3.5%)>30 yrs>+15.6 yrsSlower equity build
RENT
Mortgage rate +1pp (7.5%)>30 yrs>+15.6 yrsMore interest, less principal
RENT
Home price −10% ($360k)~7.0 yrs−7.4 yrsSmaller loan and costs
BUY
Mortgage rate −1pp (5.5%)~6.5 yrs−7.9 yrsLess interest, sooner break-even
BUY
After you decide buy
Mortgage calculator
Run the actual amortization · monthly payment · total interest over the life of the loan.
Open
Can you actually afford it
Affordability calculator
Reverse the question — start from income, debt and down payment to find your real price ceiling.
Open
Save your work